with oil near $115/barrel its looking good for a short now, so unless something odd happens in the next day or so I'm going with this option...
why? well because I think the world-wide economy is due a period of slow growth (optimistically) or is about to go into at least a mild recession... and who needs oil in a recession?
I don't buy the "emerging countries will make up for the US drop in demand" story, we are all more connected then ever, if anything we are leveraged against each other.
so thats my thoughts today, I will review on Monday and place the short if I'm still happy with the idea...
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